ToR for Consultant “Puntland Education Sector Analysis (ESA)–Public Financing Study and Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP 2022-26)–Cost Analysis”


1.1. Puntland Context

Somalia has some of the lowest development and humanitarian indicators in the world, and inequalities across different social groups are a major driver of conflict. The absence of central governance during the civil war has seen the northern part of Somalia split into autonomous and semi-autonomous regions: the internationally unrecognized autonomous state of Somaliland and the semi-autonomous state of Puntland. Following the fall of the Siad Barre government in 1991 and the onset of the civil war in Somalia, the semi-autonomous state of Puntland formed its regional administration on May 5, 1998, bringing together the Bari, Nugaal and Northern Mudug regions as well as areas of Sool and Sanaag. The Puntland State consists of the following seven regions: – Bari, Nugal, Mudug, Sanaag Sool, Ayn, and Karkaar with its main city at Garowe. While Puntland has since joined the Federal Government of Somalia, formed in 2012, public systems continued to be managed directly by state institutions. Puntland has experienced relative stability during the past five years, although conflicts in contested areas with Somaliland, inter-clan clashes and attacks by armed militants have taken place, including a severe escalation of border clashes in 2018-2019. The relative stability allowed for a stronger emphasis on building governance and rule of law, as well as enabling it to establish political and administrative institutions. The Puntland state of Somalia has managed to undertake a democratic transfer of political power and is characterized by an administration dedicated to the provision of critical basic social services, presence of an active civil society, and a growing private enterprise community.

Somalia, with the longest running humanitarian crisis lasting for over 2 decades, is one of the poorest countries in the world, with a Gross Domestic Product of US$220 per capita. It is reported that 82% of the population in Somalia is multi-dimensionally poor, and 43% of its population lives on less than US$1 per day. Over 2.6 million people out of the total estimated Somali population of 12.3 million are IDPs[1]. Furthermore, 26% of the population is pastoral or agro-pastoral across Somalia, with a higher proportion (40%) of the population having nomadic livelihoods in Puntland. 60% of employment opportunities revolve around livestock, frankincense production and fishing. The livestock sector dominates the economy of the Puntland regions and livelihoods of the population. Hence, the economy of Puntland is largely dependent on livestock exports, which contribute to approximately 80% of foreign exchange earnings and 40% of the GDP. Other sources of income for many households in Puntland are remittances from the diaspora community. Contributions from the diaspora not only benefit household incomes, but also significantly contribute to service provision in and around towns. It is quite common to see schools and mosques built through diaspora contributions.

The state was heavily affected by the 2017 drought, resulting in large scale displacement and nearly $1 billion in economic losses, 51% of which in the livestock and agriculture sectors, with a devastating impact among pastoralists. At the moment, much of Puntland is facing acute food insecurity (IPC 3), aggravated by an ongoing second wave of COVID-19 infections; the economic impact of the pandemic, including the reduction in remittances and livestock exports to Gulf countries; below average rainfall in some areas; locust swarms; and the devastating impact of cyclone Gati in Bari, affecting an estimated 180,000 people.

1.2. Overview of the Education Sector

The education system is managed directly by the State’s Ministry of Education and Higher Education (MOEHE). Despite the fragility of the context, Puntland’s education system has experienced substantial development, including strengthening of local institutions and a substantial expansion of access to primary education. The primary gross enrolment rate (GER) has is steadily increasing, from 55% in 2015 to 64% in 2019 , although the reduction in the gender gap was far more limited (one percentage point) and the gender parity index remains substantially low, at 0.81 for primary and 0.68b for secondary . The overall primary school enrolment increased by 25% during the same period. On the other hand, while new schools have been constructed, the closure of other schools and insecurity resulted only in a modest increase of the overall number (from 653 in 2016 to 658 in 2019).

Puntland has met its ESSP targets for hiring and training new teachers. The number of primary school teachers has increased by 12%, from 4,310 in 2016 to 4,806 in 2019. A total of 690 teachers have received training, surpassing the ESSP target of 500. Additional GPE funding under the Maximum Country Allocation (MCA) is being allocated to support teacher training as well. Puntland’s Garowe Teacher Education College (GTEC) provides in-service and pre-service training to primary and secondary teachers. The increased enrolment maintained the pupil-teacher ratio at 33 despite the addition of new teachers, however. Access to learning materials remains a challenge, although the GPE’s MCA will provide nearly 900,000 additional textbooks until 2023.

As of 2018, the state government invested 4.4% of its budget in the education sector, well below the 8% target in the Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP). Despite funding challenges, the MOEHE has been moderately successful in strengthening decentralized services at regional and district levels, and over 1,381 Community Education Committee members have been trained. The Ministry has a Gender Unit and Gender Focal Points in all regions. The longitudinal study conducted by the Somali Girls’ Education Promotion Project-Transition (SOMGEP-T), funded by the UK Government and implemented in rural and remote primary schools, found that female students in Puntland had consistently greater gains in numeracy and Somali literacy than their peers in other states, suggesting that progress on learning is being observed even among vulnerable populations such as pastoralists. The sector has expanded the coverage and capacity of the Education Management Information System (EMIS), having systematically released annual reports, although data is not available for all subsectors.

Puntland has been heavily affected by COVID-19, with 1,101 cases identified as of November 21, 2020 and ongoing outbreaks in eight regions. Schools remained closed between March and August 2020, resulting in potential learning losses and increased dropout rates in 2020-21. On July 2020, the MOEHE launched a remote education program using UNICEF’s learning passport platform to offer classes to primary students. Furthermore, the combination of crises faced by families and teachers is having a negative impact on students’ mental health; a study conducted in July 2020 found that 9% of the girls assessed in rural and remote areas of Puntland reported severe anxiety on a daily, weekly or monthly basis, with 4% reporting the same for depression, with a potential midterm impact on learning, retention and transition rates.

The GPE through the Education Sector Plan Development Grant (ESPDG) plans to support the Puntland Government in ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education for all by building stronger education systems for achieving improvements in education equity and learning as outlined in its Strategic Plan 2020. The previous Puntland Education Sector Analysis 2012 -2016 has expired while the Education Sector Strategic Plan 2017-2021 expires in December 2021. The ESPDG funds will support the develop a new Education Sector Analysis (ESA) and the 2022-2026 Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP), as well as annual Joint Reviews of the Education Sector.


2.1. Overall objectives:

These Terms of Reference include two consultancies to support the development of studies to inform the development of the new Education Sector Analysis (ESA) and Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP) of Puntland. The first consultancy will support a targeted public financing study for the ESA. The second consultancy will conduct the cost analysis for the ESSP.

2.2. Purpose:

The purpose of the first component of this consultancy is to conduct, in collaboration with the MOEHE and the Grant Agent, CARE International, a public financing study which will be incorporated as part of the ESA. This study will review the status of the education sector from a financing perspective; identify gaps and opportunities; and provide recommendations for the MOEHE and development partners.

The purpose of the second component of this consultancy is to conduct a cost analysis of the new ESSP, in close consultation with the MOEHE, development partners and the Grant Agent. The cost analysis is a critical component of the ESSP and will inform the feasibility analysis of the Plan.

It is expected that both components of this consultancy will be conducted through a consultative and participatory process, engaging the MOEHE’s Core Technical Group for the ESA/ESSP development; the Education Sector Committee; the Grant Agent (CARE) and the Coordinating Agency (EU); and other education stakeholders including the Ministries of Finance and Planning. The process should be geared towards ensuring local ownership and building the capacity of the MoEHE for future sustainability, and increased capacity to carry out similar actions in the future.


The consultant (s) will be responsible for designing and conducting the Public Financing Study and the cost analysis of the ESSP; coordinate with development partners to validate and interpret findings; preparing the reports and responding to feedback; and presenting findings. Applicants can submit bids for both components or for individual components only.

The specific tasks are as follows:

3.1. Public Financing Study:

· Desk Review: The consultant(s) will undertake a comprehensive analysis of documents related to MOEHE budget, expenditure, partner contribution trackers and available literature on education sector funding in Somalia. In addition, existing JRES reports and action plan will be reviewed in cooperation with the target MoE&HE and development partners.

· Interviews: The consultant(s) will conduct in-person or virtual meetings with officials from the MoEHE, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Planning, ESC members, with education donors and partners and private sector representatives to gain further insight into questions related to public financing of the education sector, in general, and specific gaps in the available information.

· Analysis of the context: The macroeconomic, humanitarian, and political contexts as well as government commitments have a critical and direct impact on education financing. The consultant is expected to conduct an analysis of contextual trends and how those are likely to affect public financing of the education sector and potential private and diaspora investments in quality and expansion of services, as well as the likelihood of investments in underserved areas and sub-sectors.

· Analysis of existing policies: This requires analysis of policies that have a direct impact on education financing, as well as exploring achievements under current policies and identify effective practices and policy gaps.

· Performance analysis: Using existing documentation on budget expenditure and return on investment, the consultant will conduct a performance analysis to determine how resources could be used more efficiently; capacity gaps; funding opportunities; and providing recommendations. **

· Validation Meeting: The consultant will hold in-person or virtual review and validation meetings with focal points at the MOEHE, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Planning, ESC, the Grant Agent and the Coordinating Agency.

· Reporting: The consultant will prepare a draft report for MOEHE, ESC and Grant Agent review; respond to feedback as required; and provide a final version of the report along with a brief presentation of the findings.

3.2. Cost Analysis for the ESSP

· Desk review: The consultant will conduct a desk review of copies of relevant documents, including but not limited to the ESA report; draft sections of the ESSP; minutes of ESSP Technical Working Group meetings; MOEHE financial documents; and financial data illustrative of costs related to the implementation of the ESSP priority strategies, where available.

· In-depth interviews: The consultant will carry out in-depth interviews with representatives from the MOEHE, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Planning; Education Donor Group and ESC partners; and private sector. The interviews will be structured to allow the consultant to obtain missing information on costing, test assumptions and collect data to inform the financial simulation model.

· Development of a financial simulation model: The consultant will develop a financial simulation model to cost the ESSP, including a detailed description of assumptions; potential variations and risks; and different scenarios reflecting the local context.

· Validation Meeting: The consultant will hold in-person or virtual review and validation meetings with focal points at the MOEHE, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Planning, ESC, the Grant Agent and the Coordinating Agency.

· Reporting: The consultant will prepare a draft cost analysis section for the ESSP; respond to feedback as required; and submit a final version of the cost analysis section inclusive of the feedback to the MOEHE and Grant Agent.**


While working on components (1) and (2), the consultant (s) should adhere to the following fundamental principles and working modalities:

· A well-organized participatory process: – Education sector plans need to be the result of a process led by the government and internalized by all national stakeholders. During the preparation of the Public Financing Study and ESSP Cost Analysis, the consultant is expected to ensure a fully participatory process inclusive of a range of stakeholders (such as ESC members, civil society, relevant Ministries, other development partners etc.) who will provide inputs to the analyses and participate in review and validation processes. Their input is invaluable to ensure that the studies reflect the local context and provide actionable recommendations.

· Capacity development; – A successful plan depends on aligning with existing capacity and developing additional capacity during the course of implementation. Both elements are critical to supporting sustainable development. The consultant (s) is expected not only to solicit inputs and feedback to the study / analysis, but also to work collaboratively with local partners to build their capacity through active participation and coaching during different steps of the process.

· Country ownership: -** The process should allow political leaders and technical experts to find a balance between political ambitions and technical constraints as well as raise awareness and gain the commitment of a wide range of education stakeholders. The process should involve selected Ministries (especially the MOEHE and Ministries of Finance and Planning), local and international partners, donors and private sector. The involvement of these actors can occur through consultations during the plan preparation process and through structured discussions on drafts of study / cost analysis.


The MoEHE will establish a working modality structured towards enhancing participation of the different actors in the process of developing the ESA and ESSP for 2022 -2026. The consultant (s) will collaborate with the following groups:

· A Core Technical Team headed by a National Coordinator and formed by senior technical staff from the MOEHE, Ministry of Planning (MOP) and Ministry of Finance (MOF), along with sector partners and academics. The Technical Team will be part of the review and validation of the ESA Public Financing Study and cost analysis and approval of the draft cost analysis section of the ESSP.

· Technical Thematic Working Groups, which will provide input to the Public Financing Study and cost analysis of the ESSP, and review drafts. The technical thematic teams will consist from MOEHE and sector partners, including subsector working groups and transversal areas groups of interest.


Component 1: Public Financing Study

· An inception report detailing methodologies to be used, implementation timeline and ways of engaging the respective Ministries, development partners and other stakeholders in the process.

· Documentation of interviews and minutes of meetings.

· Draft Public Financing Study report for review. The structure of the report will be reviewed and pre-approved by the MOEHE during the inception phase.

· A PowerPoint presentation including a description of the methodology, highlights of the study and recommendations, which will be used in the validation meeting.

· Final Public Financing Study inclusive of feedback received.

Component 2: Cost Analysis

· An inception report detailing methodologies to be used, implementation timeline and ways of engaging the respective Ministries, development partners and other stakeholders in the process.

· Documentation of interviews and minutes of meetings.

· Description of the Financial Simulation model and key assumptions used.

· Draft cost analysis section of the ESSP for review.

· A PowerPoint presentation including a description of the methodology, highlights of the study and recommendations, which will be used in the validation meeting.

· Final cost analysis section of the ESSP inclusive of feedback received.


The assignment will take place over the months of February /November 2021 with following tentative deadlines (exact dates to be proposed by the consultant):


  1. Task: Component 1 – inception phase

Deliverables: Inception report

Deadlines: March 2021


Task: Component 1 – analytical phase

Deliverables: Documentation of interviews and minutes of meetings

Deadline: March-April 2021


Task: Component 1 – submission of study report

Deliverables: Draft Public Financing Study Report; PowerPoint presentation

Deadline: May 2021


Task: Component 1 – submission of the final report

Deliverables: Final Public Financing Study Report

Deadline: June 2021



Task: Component 2 – inception phase

Deliverables: Inception report

Deadline: August 2021


Task: Component 2 – analytical phase

Deliverables: Documentation of interviews and minutes of meetings; description of the financial simulation model

Deadline: September-October 2021


Task: Component 2 – submission of the draft cost analysis section

Deliverables: Draft cost analysis section of the ESSP; PowerPoint presentation

Deadline: November 2021


Task: Component 2 – submission of final cost analysis section

Deliverables: Final cost analysis section of the ESSP

Deadline: November 2021


· At least an advanced degree in education and /or educational economics or related field.

· At least 8 years of relevant experience in the field of education economics, education sector planning and/or education research.

· Previous experience in conducting studies on public financing of education, developing sector analyses and education sector strategy development or similar work, preferably in East Africa. Previous experience in Somalia is desirable.

· Experience in macroeconomics analysis.

· Excellent analytical skills.

· Excellent writing skills in English. Fluency in Somali is an asset.

· Experience working with government ministries, preferably the Ministry of Education.


The budget prepared by the bidder should cover all the activities necessary to the completion of the deliverables for one or both components. Bidders are required to indicate if they are bidding for an individual component of this consultancy or for both. This budget should be inclusive of all costs covering team member costs, travel (if applicable), data collection costs and any other costs associated with the completion of the work including where required costs for reasonable adjustment.


How to apply

All applications should be sent to latest by1700 Hours (GMT +3) 15-March-2021 in one email, with separate attachments for the technical and financial proposals in pdf and a Subject line “ ToR for consultancies Puntland Education Sector Analysis (ESA) – Public Financing Study and Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP 2022-2026) – Cost Analysis”.

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