TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR BASELINE SURVEY (PRESOCO PROJECT)

PROMOTION OF RESILIENCE AND INCLUSIVE SOCIAL COHESION IN SOMALIA (PRESOCO)

TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR BASELINE SURVEY

1. Context

Somalia is mired in a decades-long crisis, scarred by conflict, severe climate shocks, disease outbreaks, weak infrastructure and social protection systems. According to the latest population survey, Somalia’s population was 12.3 million in 2014. The population is predominantly young, with an estimated 75% under the age of 30 and nearly 50% under the age of 15[1]. In 2020, about 71% of the population lived below the poverty line[2]. Income inequality is very high, and poverty is much more pronounced in rural than in urban areas. The gender inequality index for Somalia is 0.776 (1 means inequality), ranking Somalia on the fourth highest place globally[3]. While there has been significant political progress in Somalia over the past decade in establishing state institutions and creating new federal states, Somalia remains in a precarious state with weak institutions and public services[4]. The labor market in Somalia is highly gendered, and women’s labour force participation is only half that of men. This is due to the patriarchal nature of society as well as security concerns that limit women’s participation and mobility. Although women benefit from increased economic opportunities, many still work in menial positions that are risky and whose earnings are just enough to sustain their families. Somalia has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in the world and very low education indicators, with a labor market participation ratio of only 33% for youth and 14% for female youth.[5] Moreover, major environmental challenges, such as deforestation and overgrazing, as well as climate change-induced land degradation and increasing drought, increase insecurity and inhibit people’s resilience. Weak governance and climate-related shocks exacerbate these challenges and have strong adverse effects on the agricultural sector, which accounts for nearly 46% of the workforce[6].

Ongoing conflicts remain at the heart of the crisis in Somalia. Chronic insecurity and violence have taken a heavy toll on the population for decades, affecting livelihoods and hindering economic progress and development. Somalia’s social structure is highly complex, and clan identity is a key driver of instability. In the Somali context, climate change can further exacerbate conflicts over scarce resources. Al Shabaab capitalizes on local conflicts and uses them to inject new energy into its campaign against emerging formal institutions[7].

Desert locust infestation and COVID-19 have also put an additional economic strain on the vulnerable segments of the populations such as poor rural households, internally displaced people, and returnees. The World Bank Somalia Economic Update of October 2020 noted that COVID-19 has affected all sectors of the economy.

2. Background to the project

CARE Somalia implements various programs comprising food security and livelihoods, education, water and sanitation, governance and peacebuilding, and health across different regions in Somalia helping the most vulnerable households to cope with the different risks they face and achieve self-reliance. It has identified and selected two impact groups (Rural Women and Urban Youth) as its core programming focus/strategy and each program has a comprehensive Theory of Change spanning over 10-15 years of the implementation period. CARE’s approach acknowledges that shocks and stresses are a likely occurrence, and will work with the communities themselves to map and identify the negative coping strategies which have a long-term detrimental effect on families and communities. CARE’s experience in Somalia and globally also suggests that inequitable distribution of rights, resources, and power is strongly influenced by gender. CARE’s approach, therefore, acknowledges that gender is a critical factor in understanding vulnerability – and thus resilience – and the promotion of gender equality and the empowerment of women is a proven strategy to overcome poverty. CARE’s resilience approach focuses on securing and enhancing what people already have against predictable shocks, and strengthening governance and monitoring systems to ensure that dynamic and cumulative risks are understood and inform planning at all levels from household upwards. In addition, resilience-building strategies need to be rooted in a holistic, responsive approach that addresses the intra-household disparities and creates the enabling environment to correct the wide range of risks and barriers that women face. Therefore, a two-pronged approach is necessary, focusing on technical capacity to withstand shocks and secure livelihoods, and shifts in gender power relations and behaviors. CARE’s resilience building includes good governance and women’s empowerment as crucial paths for sustainably improving resilience to recurring shocks and stresses.

CARE Somalia received funds from the German Ministry of Development to implement a project that strengthens the economic and social resilience of vulnerable groups such as (agro)pastoralists, internally displaced persons and returnees at the individual, household, and community levels in a person-centered approach. The project’s duration is from 1^st August 2021 to 31^st July 2024.

The project’s specific objective and outcomes are:

Specific objective: Strengthening the resilience of chronically vulnerable people and local systems in Somalia to cope with recurrent shocks and stresses and to adapt to the impacts of climate change and ongoing conflict

Outcome 1: Enhanced food and nutrition security through increased household food production, development of alternative livelihoods, and adoption of safer hygiene, and nutrition practices at project end

Outcome 2: Improved management of community infrastructure and basic services at project end to support sustainable environmental, social, and economic rehabilitation and development practices

Outcome 3: Increased capacity of government and local institutions in disaster risk reduction and management, including COVID-19, at project end, support minimization of climate-related and other external shocks

Outcome 4: Structures and communities are able to coordinate support, resolve conflicts, and change harmful gender norms at the end of the project to promote an enabling environment for sustainable development and peaceful, equitable, and inclusive coexistence

The project is being implemented in the districts of Afamdow and Badhadhe (Lower Juba), Hobyo (Mu-dug), and Erigavo (Sanaag). Drought is projected to intensify significantly in all three regions in 2021, with severe consequences including dried-up water sources, miscarriages among livestock, and dwindling pastureland[8]. The Lower Juba region in southern Somalia has been plagued by instability since the civil war. The social and economic infrastructure is inadequate, and the regional administration is unable to provide basic services. Since the region is mostly under government control again, it has experienced a steady influx of internally displaced people, mainly from Mogadishu, and returnees from Kenya, putting additional pressure on depleted resources. Although Afmadow was recaptured from Al Shabaab back in 2012, the town is subject to recurring attacks. In Badhadhe district, in southern Lower Juba, fishing, livestock and agriculture are the main sources of income, leaving the population highly vulnerable to climate-induced shocks and climate change. In addition, a 2019 country report identified Badhadhe as one of the district capitals controlled by Al Shabaab in the Lower Juba region[9]. The Mudug region is the most centrally located region in Somalia, with Hobyo being the largest district. The district suffered during the civil war and was without a functioning administration for a long time. Hobyo is regularly plagued by drought and insecurity, including piracy. Due to the level of insecurity, many pastoralist households left the region and migrated to cities, which resulted in a loss of livestock. Fishing is the main economic activity in the region and seems to employ mostly youth. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate among youth is high and access to education is low. Sanaag is a region in northern Somalia under the regional administration of Somaliland. Although the political situation appears stable, the region’s geographic location between Somaliland and Puntland makes it highly volatile. Almost the entire population of the Erigavo district raises livestock[10]. Social facilities such as schools and hospitals are available, but quality and provision are inadequate.

3. Baseline survey purpose and objectives

The overall purpose of the survey is to measure household and community resilience while increasing local contextual understanding and provide a baseline for key outcomes, outputs, and resilience indicators. This is intended to promote understanding of the factors influencing household and community resilience in the project areas in order to guide ongoing and future humanitarian, resilience, durable solutions, women empowerment, conflict mitigation, and development programing.

The baseline survey will establish base values for the project indicators and enable subsequent project assessments and end-line evaluation conducted to assess the economy and efficiency of project implementation as well as the effectiveness, equity, and sustainability of the interventions in achieving the project outputs and outcomes. In other words, the survey will determine the baseline status of all indicators as established in the project’s log-frame while reviewing the relevance, feasibility, and targets of indicators established in the project’s log-frame.

4. Baseline survey methodology

The survey will incorporate both quantitative and qualitative components. The quantitative component will provide baseline values and supporting information for all project indicators and measures of household and community resilience capacities that are statistically representative of the project areas, while the qualitative component aims to obtain households’ perceptions of the factors that impact their resilience and their reasons for adopting particular strategies, as well as to further illuminate quantitative results. The focus will be to obtain an in-depth understanding of vulnerability to prevailing disaster risks such as droughts, floods, disease outbreaks, and conflict in the three project areas from the perspectives of the relevant stakeholders, local communities, CARE implementing staff, and other sector-relevant actors in the project target areas. The successful candidate is expected to propose an appropriate and detailed methodology for delivering this assignment, below are the possible strategies to be used for collecting the baseline information:

a) Desk review of project documents and other background documents like project proposal, log frame, assessment reports, etc.

b) Survey to collect quantitative indicators that cannot be assessed through secondary data.

c) In-depth interviews with key informants and other community groups such as women and youth groups

d) Observations from the field – basic service provision, natural environment, community institutions, livelihood activities, etc.

4.1 Key Lines of inquiry

a) What evidence can be drawn for establishing project base values that demonstrate the current social, livelihood, and vulnerability status of the target households and communities (pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, IDPs, women, youth, people with disabilities, and clan minority groups) in line with the project logical framework?

b) What are the current resilience and community adaptation practices in the target communities (pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, IDPs, women, youth, people with disabilities, and clan minority groups) with regard to the repeated shocks and crises, climate-related and others?

c) What evidence can be drawn from the existing household income, livelihood capitals, communal assets, safety nets as well as local community governance structures in order to strengthen the food security and resilience of the target HHs and communities?

d) What are the government, non-governmental, and community institutions that support coordination of food security, resilience, and durable solutions efforts and work to mitigate community conflicts and to challenge harmful gender practices and what capacities do they lack to achieve their objectives?

e) What are key recommendations for quality project implementation in the project areas?

4.2 Approach to sampling

The survey company/consultants will be required to help finalize the sampling frameworks for both qualitative and quantitative samples while selecting a relevant and justified survey design with respect to the project being evaluated. The study population should be comprised of project beneficiaries from the operational districts and villages and key informants at the community, district, and institutional levels.

These should be of sufficient size and representative of the three geographical areas and different community groups to allow:

a) Statistically significant or acceptable levels of certainty that the findings are representative for each sub-groups of the target population (pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, IDPs, women, youth, people with disabilities, and clan minority groups) in Sanaag, Mudug, and Lower Juba

b) Significant preciseness to assess and capture the socio-economic context of the target communities (pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, IDPs, women, youth, people with disabilities, and clan minority groups)

c) Reasonable cost-effectiveness and statistically significant to measure and reflect the scope of the target communities (pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, IDPs, women, youth, people with disabilities, and clan minority groups)

d) The ability to accurately generalize the insights into what works and why for similar contexts.

5. Time-line and work plan

The expected time frame of the survey is 40 working days. This time frame will be possible if data collection is conducted simultaneously in all three project areas. The draft report will be submitted within two months of signing the contract. CARE Project Manager will collate feedback from stakeholders (CARE Germany, donor, and government), and share it with the consultant within two weeks of receiving the draft. The final report must be submitted after two weeks of receiving the feedback. The detailed work plan for the baseline survey will be finalized by 20^th October 2021 in consultation with the survey company/consultants.

6. Ethical considerations

The survey’s objectives will be clearly explained to all the respondents prior to gathering any form of information from them. Written consent of the respondents will be taken before collecting information where possible. The data collection team will further be required to follow the CARE’s Policy on Safeguarding and Protection from Sexual Harassment, Exploitation, and Abuse throughout the baseline survey process. The baseline survey approach must consider the safety of participants at all stages of the survey.

7. Key deliverables

a) An inception report outlining the approach and methodology including the sampling approach and data collection of the baseline survey

b) A draft report that addresses the expectations stipulated in the objectives and key questions of the survey and which includes disaggregated data by sub-groups (gender, age, geography, etc.)

c) A debriefing presentation for CARE Somalia, where the overview of the findings and the recommendations will be discussed

d) Final evidence-based report as per objectives and evaluation questions stipulated in the ToR and following the reporting outline incorporating all feedback, suggestions, and recommendations from CARE and other key stakeholders.

e) All datasets and tools are submitted with the baseline survey.

f) All necessary permissions, approvals, etc. required prior to data collection

8. Report outline

a) The final report will contain the following elements:

b) Title Page

c) Table of Contents and Other Sections that preface the Report

d) Executive Summary

e) Introduction and Background description

f) Rationale: (scope and purpose of the survey)

g) Methodology

h) Limitations

i) Results in Chapters or Key Findings.

j) Conclusion and Recommendations

k) References and Appendices

l) List of references

9. Expected Qualification and Experience

a) Master’s degree in economics, development studies, or a related social science subject

b) 5 years of experience in similar evaluation/survey in the context of or similar to Somalia

c) Knowledge and demonstrated experience of designing and leading baseline and mid-line surveys and project evaluations

d) Strong knowledge of qualitative and quantitative research methods and sampling strategies

e) Statistical analysis skills and strong proficiency with data analysis packages such as SPSS or STATA and qualitative data analysis software including ODK

f) Fluency (verbal and written) in English and Somali is essential and the presence of the key survey team in Somalia

g) The proposal should include a team instead of an individual. If a team is proposed, their roles should be clearly specified **

10. Expression of Interest

Applications should contain:

a) A brief cover letter (not exceeding one page), clearly indicating experience in the area of planning, designing, and conducting baseline surveys and similar research activities

b) Up to date Curriculum Vitae (CV) of the consultant/s that will be involved in the baseline study. A profile of the consulting firm

c) Specific roles and responsibilities of the team leader, supervisory chain, and other core members of the evaluation team.

d) A technical proposal including:

i. Research methodology, study design, sampling technique, sample size, data collection instruments, data collection, and analysis plan

ii. Detailed work plan showing the different activities the baseline survey process will comprise – training of enumerators, data collection, reporting, etc.

iii. Financial proposal covering all costs – professional fees of the key team, flight and vehicle costs, cost of enumerators, stationery, etc.

iv. HOW TO APPLY

The technical and financial proposals shall be submitted at the same time. The proposals must be submitted electronically to SOM.Consultant@care.org latest by 14 of October 2021 with the Subject line Consultancy for the Baseline Survey services for the PRESOCO project**.** **