Request for Proposals(RFP): Conflict Risk Assessment of conducting state-level elections in various locations in Somalia (Ref #:SSFMR-035-C01)

Background

The Somalia Stability Fund (SSF) is a multi-donor fund working towards a peaceful, secure, and stable Somalia. It offers Somali stakeholders a source of multi-year funding that can respond to local needs and opportunities.

The Stability Fund aims to contribute to enhancing stability in Somalia through the following programmatic outputs:

  1. Fault-lines for political conflict (FGS-FMS, inter & intra state) are identified and appropriately addressed
  2. Enhanced popular participation in governance, particularly for women and excluded communities
  3. Increased government visibility and community engagement
  4. Reduced community vulnerability to conflict

Throughout 2021, SSF will prioritise three broad areas; sub-national democratisation, district council formation, and reconciliation

SSF invites eligible and qualified entities (“Bidders”) to submit proposals quotations in response to this RFP for the provision of consultant services on Conflict Risk Assessment of conducting state-level elections in various locations in Somalia (Ref #: SSFMR-035-C01)

Introduction

In 2019, SSF provided some early support to further the democratisation agenda in Puntland State. This included supporting a multi-stakeholder conference on democratisation and supporting the Transitional Puntland Election Commission (TPEC) to finalise their Strategic Plan. The Fund also provided support to TPEC in conducting a review of the legislative framework for local government elections and an options paper that provides advice on how the election can be delivered in a cost-effective manner, including a review of available voter registration options. In addition, SSF commissioned a conflict risk assessment for the Local Government Elections in order to determine likely conflict flashpoints and how these might be best mitigated.

SSF seeks to expand its work on state-level democratisation from Puntland to other Federal Member States, in particular Galmudug , South West and the Benadir Regional Administration. As SSF expands its state-level democratisation work, it wishes to engage a consultancy service firm to provide concurrently produced conflict risk assessments in Galmudug, South West and the Benadir Regional Administration (BRA) to better understand key conflict risks that are likely due to electoral processes.

Purpose

The purpose of this consultancy is to provide expertise advice to the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), Galmudug State, South West State, Benadir Regional Administration (BRA) and Local District Administrations, implementing partners and the wider donor community as to the potential conflict risks of conducting state-level Elections and how they might be best mitigated.

Approach and methodology

The conflict assessment will use participatory techniques and relevant quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. The methods will include prediction risk modelling; risk and forecasting methods for conflict; comprehensive and objective measures of violence, conflict and societal safety and security; measures commonly used to forecast conflict and understand vulnerability to violence; and design of conflict risk mitigation strategies.

Relevant information to inform the risk measurement and the evaluation of key indicators for the assessments will be gathered through desk-based research and primary data collection via field work including in-depth interviews with a representation sample of key stakeholders. The risk assessment will identify and evaluate the potential conflict risks associated with the local government elections in each state and at districts levels, it will analyse the consequences of the risks, and it will recommend the appropriate measures to mitigate the risks.

Key deliverables

The key deliverables of this assessment are to produce concurrently three conflict risk assessments for Galmudug State, South West State and Benadir. The following aspects should be analysed:

  • An assessment of the likely conflict issues that might arise during border demarcation within states, determining the qualitative nature of the potential adverse consequences of each risk including the identification of the potential parties or assets which may be affected by the risk, and establish the likely severity of consequence and the levels of vulnerability to violence
  • An assessment of broader social and political conflicts that might arise during elections, determining the qualitative nature of the potential adverse consequences of each risk including the identification of the potential parties or assets which may be affected by the risk, and establish the likely severity of consequence and the levels of vulnerability to violence
  • An assessment of existing legal and traditional mechanism for addressing electionrelated conflict
  • An assessment of the potential conflict risks in the border regions within federal member states or border area in neighbouring countries
  • An assessment of any conflict risks related to the overlapping mandates of federal, states and local administrations and electoral management bodies

For all the issues above, the analysis should provide a good understanding of the likelihood of the onset of the risks in the specific contexts and recommendations should be provided outlining what can be done to mitigate the risk of conflict events occurring and how the FGS, FMS and local authorities and where appropriate the international community, can successfully mitigate these emerging conflicts. This should be presented in a concise report and be followed by a presentation to the SSF team and the wider donor community.

Key Personnel

I) Conflict/Elections Advisor

  • High level academic qualifications (Master’s level or equivalent) in the area of political science, conflict risk mitigation strategies, geopolitical stability, economics, law, public administration/management or a similar discipline.
  • 5 years post qualification experience in a lead technical expert role in the area of conducting research and analysis in Fragile and Conflict Affected States (FCAS), preferably in Somalia, including knowledge and experience of prediction risk modelling; comprehensive and objective measures to forecast conflict, violence, and societal safety and security; measures to understand vulnerability to violence; and the design of conflict risk mitigation strategies
  • 5 years post qualification experience in an advisory/lead technical expert role in the area of elections and democratisation programming in Fragile and Conflict Affected States (FCAS)
  • Previous demonstrated post qualification experience in programming or research experience in gender issues relating to democratisation and governance

II) Field Researchers in the three locations (3 key personnel for all 3 locations)

The three preferred candidates will have:

  • 2 years’ experience in managing data collection at the FGS and FMS level
  • Previous governance/peace building/elections programming/research.
  • Experience of collecting data using a variety of different methods, for example KIIs and focus group discussions and different contexts for example community-level data collection and multi-stakeholder forums
  • Experience in transcribing data collected from the field

Location and Duration of assignment

This assignment will be both desk based and field work that is expected to run for about eight weeks upon award, till on/about the week of 25 April 2021. Field work to take place in Mogadishu, Galmudug and South West State of Somalia.

How to apply

To access the full RFP package, interested Bidders are advised to click on this link: https://bit.ly/2JRqZif

For clarification questions, please email us at procure@stabilityfund.so no later than Monday 11 January 2021 at 1400 HRS (EAT).

Responses to clarification questions will be uploaded no later than, Thursday 14 January 2021 at 1400 HRS (EAT) and accessed through the same OneDrive link with the RFP Package: https://bit.ly/2JRqZif

The Technical and Financial proposals will need to be submitted separately in electronic form by Sunday, 31 January 2021 at 2330 HRS (EAT). The proposals shall be submitted separately to the following addresses:

Technical Proposal: procure@stabilityfund.so

With the following subject title: TECHNICAL PROPOSAL- Conflict Risk Assessment of conducting state-level elections in various locations in Somalia (Ref #: SSFMR-035-C01)

Financial Proposal: financialproposals@stabilityfund.so

With the following subject title: FINANCIAL PROPOSAL- Conflict Risk Assessment of conducting state-level elections in various locations in Somalia (Ref #: SSFMR-035-C01)

No exceptions will be made for late entries.

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